STK models predicts Phosbo-Grunt reentry over the Atlantic Ocean (Credits:

Based on the latest Phobos-Grunt telemetry data, the probe is now predicted to reenter Earth’s atmosphere on January 14 at 11:02 UTC over the southern Atlantic Ocean.

Predicted reentry locations and times have varied considerably within the 51.4 N and S longitudal lines over the past weeks based on updating  orbital elements.

The January 14 prediction is based on an STK model. USSTRATCOM is not yet providing a prediction according to Phobos-Grunt was launched on November 9 and was declared unrecoverable by Roscosmos on December 10. Roscosmos’ latest reentry prediction published January 11 calls for reentry between January 14 and January 16  with the most likely location in the Indian Ocean. Roscosmos anticipated 20-30 fragments to reach the surface with the hydrazine fuel tank expected to burn up on reentry.



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About the author

Merryl Azriel

Merryl Azriel

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Having wandered into professional writing and editing after a decade in engineering, science, and management, I now enjoy reintegrating the dichotomy by bringing space technology and policy within reach of an interested public. I lead a fantastic all-volunteer staff as Managing Editor of Space Safety Magazine and keep my pencil sharp as Proposal & Publication Manager for INNOVIM, a NASA/NOAA contractor. In my spare time, you’ll find me advocating for greater appreciation of the International Space Station, supporting International Space University projects, and every so often, reading a book.

  • Michael J. Listner

    With emphasis that this a Russian prediction and not from US Strategic Command via JSpOC.