STK models predicts Phosbo-Grunt reentry over the Atlantic Ocean (Credits:

Based on the latest Phobos-Grunt telemetry data, the probe is now predicted to reenter Earth’s atmosphere on January 14 at 11:02 UTC over the southern Atlantic Ocean.

Predicted reentry locations and times have varied considerably within the 51.4 N and S longitudal lines over the past weeks based on updating  orbital elements.

The January 14 prediction is based on an STK model. USSTRATCOM is not yet providing a prediction according to Phobos-Grunt was launched on November 9 and was declared unrecoverable by Roscosmos on December 10. Roscosmos’ latest reentry prediction published January 11 calls for reentry between January 14 and January 16  with the most likely location in the Indian Ocean. Roscosmos anticipated 20-30 fragments to reach the surface with the hydrazine fuel tank expected to burn up on reentry.




About the author

Merryl Azriel

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Having wandered into professional writing and editing after a decade in engineering, science, and management, Merryl now enjoys reintegrating the dichotomy by bringing space technology and policy within reach of an interested public. After three years as Space Safety Magazine’s Managing Editor, Merryl semi-retired to Visiting Contributor and manager of the campaign to bring the International Space Station collaboration to the attention of the Nobel Peace Prize committee. She keeps her pencil sharp as Proposal Manager for U.S. government contractor CSRA.

One Response

  1. Michael J. Listner

    With emphasis that this a Russian prediction and not from US Strategic Command via JSpOC.

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