STK models predicts Phosbo-Grunt reentry over the Atlantic Ocean (Credits: celestrak.com).
Based on the latest Phobos-Grunt telemetry data, the probe is now predicted to reenter Earth’s atmosphere on January 14 at 11:02 UTC over the southern Atlantic Ocean.
Predicted reentry locations and times have varied considerably within the 51.4 N and S longitudal lines over the past weeks based on updating orbital elements.
The January 14 prediction is based on an STK model. USSTRATCOM is not yet providing a prediction according to celestrak.com. Phobos-Grunt was launched on November 9 and was declared unrecoverable by Roscosmos on December 10. Roscosmos’ latest reentry prediction published January 11 calls for reentry between January 14 and January 16 with the most likely location in the Indian Ocean. Roscosmos anticipated 20-30 fragments to reach the surface with the hydrazine fuel tank expected to burn up on reentry.
![A trajectory analysis that used a computational fluid dynamics approach to determine the likely position and velocity histories of the foam (Credits: NASA Ref [1] p61).](https://www.spacesafetymagazine.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/fluid-dynamics-trajectory-analysis-50x50.jpg)
With emphasis that this a Russian prediction and not from US Strategic Command via JSpOC.