Updated Phobos-Grunt Prediction Calls for Ocean Reentry Location


STK models predicts Phosbo-Grunt reentry over the Atlantic Ocean (Credits: celestrak.com).

Based on the latest Phobos-Grunt telemetry data, the probe is now predicted to reenter Earth’s atmosphere on January 14 at 11:02 UTC over the southern Atlantic Ocean.

Predicted reentry locations and times have varied considerably within the 51.4 N and S longitudal lines over the past weeks based on updating  orbital elements.

The January 14 prediction is based on an STK model. USSTRATCOM is not yet providing a prediction according to celestrak.com. Phobos-Grunt was launched on November 9 and was declared unrecoverable by Roscosmos on December 10. Roscosmos’ latest reentry prediction published January 11 calls for reentry between January 14 and January 16  with the most likely location in the Indian Ocean. Roscosmos anticipated 20-30 fragments to reach the surface with the hydrazine fuel tank expected to burn up on reentry.



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About the author

Merryl Azriel

Merryl Azriel

Merryl is Managing Editor of Space Safety Magazine and Vice President of Public Affairs for the International Space Safety Foundation. A Chemical Engineer and graduate of the International Space University with a Masters in Space Studies, Merryl is committed to the advancement of manned exploration and utilization of space resources.

One Response

  1. Michael J. Listner

    With emphasis that this a Russian prediction and not from US Strategic Command via JSpOC.


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