NASA published on its website a Re-entry and Risk Assessment for the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS), which is expected to reenter the atmosphere in late September or early October.
The official source of reentry predictions for uncontrolled space objects is USSTRATCOM’s Joint Space Operations Center (JSpOC).
TIP messages provide the best estimates of reentry time and location but have large uncertainties. Even at T – 2 hours, the uncertainty of reentry time is on average +/- 25 minutes for nearly circular orbits. This equates to +/- 12,000 km on the Earth.
The document can be downloaded from NASA website, along with a Frequently Asked Question (FAQ) on space debris.
![A trajectory analysis that used a computational fluid dynamics approach to determine the likely position and velocity histories of the foam (Credits: NASA Ref [1] p61).](https://www.spacesafetymagazine.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/fluid-dynamics-trajectory-analysis-50x50.jpg)
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